Education
The Trading Edge
Concepts, risk frameworks, and psychology for traders who measure edge with data. No hype: sample-size discipline and explicit limits on what the numbers can claim.
Reference
Trading Glossary
Plain-English definitions: profit factor, expectancy, R-multiple, trailing drawdown, FIFO, VWAP, and more.
Maximum Drawdown: The Deepest Peak-to-Trough Decline
Maximum drawdown is the deepest peak-to-trough equity decline. Learn to measure it, how it pairs with profit factor, and how it differs from trailing drawdown.
Strategy Analytics
Profit Factor in Trading: The Gross Win to Loss Ratio
Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. Learn what the ratio means, how it differs from win rate and expectancy, and where one outlier distorts it.
Strategy Analytics
Sample Size and Strategy Win Rate: When the Number Means Anything
Strategy win rate without a sample size is a slogan. Compute the confidence interval, set a per-setup floor, and read the number against its own width.
Strategy Analytics
Backtested and Forward-Tested Results in Futures Trading
Backtested results show how a strategy would have done on past data. Forward tests show what it actually does on live broker fills. The distinction matters.
Strategy Analytics
What Overfitting Is and How It Inflates Strategy Results
Overfitting is when a strategy fits historical noise instead of a real edge. See how to spot it in backtests and journal data before live capital pays for it.
Strategy Analytics
What Is Edge Decay and How It Shows Up in a Journal
Edge decay is when a trading strategy's advantage erodes over time. See how it shows up in journal metrics before P&L, and how to tell it from variance.
Strategy Analytics
Why 20 Winning Trades Proves Nothing (And How Many You Actually Need)
Most traders declare a strategy proven after 20 wins. Statistical analysis requires 200+ trades for 90% confidence. Here's the math behind the gap.