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The Trading Edge

Concepts, risk frameworks, and psychology for traders who measure edge with data. No hype: sample-size discipline and explicit limits on what the numbers can claim.

Reference

Trading Glossary

Plain-English definitions: profit factor, expectancy, R-multiple, trailing drawdown, FIFO, VWAP, and more.

Latest·Behavioral Edge·7 min read

Setup Miss and Execution Error: Why the Split Matters

A setup miss is a qualified trade you never took; an execution error is one you took wrong. Why separating the two is the only way to measure your real edge.

Behavioral Edge

What Is Maximum Adverse Excursion in Futures Trading?

Maximum adverse excursion is the deepest unrealized loss a futures trade carried before it closed. Here is how to measure it and what it reveals about your stops.

7 min read

Behavioral Edge

Behavioral Pattern Claims: What Makes One Trustworthy?

A behavioral pattern claim needs a binary trigger, a 20-trade per-pattern sample, a stated confidence interval, and per-setup separation before it surfaces.

7 min read

Behavioral Edge

What Is Maximum Favorable Excursion in Futures Trading?

Maximum favorable excursion is the peak unrealized profit a futures trade reached before it closed. Here is how to measure the gap and what it reveals.

7 min read

Behavioral Edge

How to Tag Plan and Improvised Trades in Your Journal

Tag every futures trade as plan or improvised so the split is measurable. A precise rule, a clean ledger, and a per-category expectancy you can trust.

7 min read

Behavioral Edge

What Overtrading Actually Is and How to Measure It

Overtrading is taking more trades than the strategy supports. See how to define it in numbers, separate it from a busy market day, and measure the cost.

7 min read

Behavioral Edge

Cutting Winners Short: How to Put a Dollar Figure on the Trades That Got Away

Cutting winners short has a cost you can compute. Use Maximum Favorable Excursion against your realized exits to put a dollar figure on the money you left on the table.

6 min read

Behavioral Edge

FOMO Entries: How to Spot Them in Your Data and What They Cost

FOMO entries don't follow a loss; they follow a missed move. Here's how to define them objectively, tag them in your journal, and quantify the damage.

6 min read

Behavioral Edge

The Metric That Exposes Bad Trading Disguised as Profit

Outcome bias causes traders to reinforce bad decisions that got lucky. Learn how to track decision quality vs. trade outcomes, and why P&L alone will mislead you.

5 min read